UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR ALICANTE

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The Professor of Human Geography at the University of Alicante (UA), José Ramón Valero, has warned of an uncertain future for Alicante as more and more men and women leave the area in search of work.

Thousands of men and women, who increasingly see little of future for themselves in the region, are either moving overseas or to larger cities in the north, and in so doing they are creating a brain drain that leaves an uncertain future for the province, now facing an unprecedented demographic crisis that will continue to worsen in the coming years.

Last year there was a loss of young people in all age groups but it was most pronounced among men over 25 years, particularly in the 30-34 year age-group.

Professor Valero speaks of a "lost generation", the "brain drain" and warns of the consequences that it will bring to the area.

Population projections to 2019 show that all regions in the province, except L’Alacantí, will experience a population decrease with a negative migration balance, according to data provided by the Valencian Statistics Institute (IVE).

The hardest hit will be the Marina Alta, down 1.10% according to the census. The Vinalopó and L’Alt Vinalopó Mitja also are below the average for the Region and will fall by 0.48% and 0.47%, respectively. The decrease will be less in the Baix Vinalopó (-0.16%), the Marina Baixa (-0.16) and the Baix Segura (-0.04). For Alicante the increase is only 0.05%.

Carlos Gomez Gil, director of the Permanent Immigration Observatory and professor at the UA, confirmed that the demographic crisis is deepening and that now the province’s future is uncertain, "with indications that generate uneasiness."

"Emigration, which has already surpassed that of the 50s and 60s is a "gift" to European countries like Germany, which benefit from its development, but is very negative for the evolution of local society", he said.

Gil speaks of a "perfect demographic storm". He highlights several factors. The first is immigration, which has been the basis of population growth in recent years. "But now, for the first time in many years there is a setback," he warns.

This factor is linked with falling birth rates and population replacement as well as the departure of young people from Alicante. "The crisis is very deep, but at the present time we are unable to gauge what will happen.”

IVE data shows that of the 14,872 births in 2014, there will be a reduction of more than five hundred this year. However, in 2018 the decline will be 2,000. The fall in birth rates is as a result of the emigration of women from the age group 20-34 years. The Valencian Institute of Statistics project that 12,833 births will be recorded in 2018, which will be 2,039 less than in 2014.

This new demographic situation is affecting the economic and social dynamism in the region and significant impacts can already be seen in infrastructure planning, not to mention bars and shops in that have had to close.

Places are decreasing in schools, with the subsequent loss of teachers. This impact is also being seen in the universities, with replacement rates falling by up to 10%.

Filed under: http://www.theleader.info/article/47232/

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