COALITION MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR ORIHUELA

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Before last week’s UK elections political commentators predicted that coalition governments were here to stay and single party government was a phenomenon of the past, the UK conservatives have proved all the commentators wrong.

The predictions for Orihuela have been exactly the same in relation to coalition governments, the options seemed to be for there to be either a two party right-wing government or a rainbow left of three or four parties? With only 25 seats to fill commentators were convinced that no party would reach the magic figure of 13.

Many believe that a strong single party government is needed to correct the devastation caused by the last left-wing coalition government.

On the extreme communist left it is likely that either Cambiamos or Ganemos could achieve enough votes and win one seat. If all the communist parties had have joined forces under one banner they could have won as many as 3 seats but divided the maximum they can achieve is 1 seat.

Pepa Ferrando’s Foro Demócrata is expected to win 2,500 votes and 2 seats but it is highly unlikely that any other party will want to tarnish their anti-corruption image by joining forces with them. Ciudadanos (C’s) have been openly spreading the rumour that the PP will join forces with her after the election.

This is a highly unlikely scenario as the national PP would see it as a total breach of their anti-corruption policy and this would set the PP image back years and is an unthinkable backward step.

Ciudadanos (C´s) have an up-and-coming image throughout Spain but in Orihuela this party is now being linked to businessmen of unclear intent. Up to when the lists were submitted and declared it was thought that C´s could get as many as 5 seats but in the last week it seems that they will be extremely lucky to achieve 3,000 votes and 2 seats.

A very important factor in this election is that there are 13 different parties contesting the election. The extra parties taking part dilutes the vote for each of the other small parties. 200 votes given to a small party like PRO or DLP helps eliminate a party like Claro or one of the communist parties.

The electoral system used is very mathematical. It favours the large parties, gives seats to the medium sizes parties and eliminates the small parties. 8 of the 13 parties contesting the Orihuela election are small parties that will be eliminated because they will not be able to achieve the required 5% or an estimated minimum of 1,600 votes.

The best known of these 8 parties that will be eliminated is Claro. All these votes (about 4,500) from these 8 eliminated parties will be binned but they still form part of the total vote cast in Orihuela.

The Psoe should gain extra votes from the villages surrounding Orihuela because they put their supporters into key positions there but if their vote is lower 8,000 they will only receive 7 seats. If at the same time the PP can achieve more than 13,000 votes they could achieve 13 seats which will be an overall majority.

The PP has publicly declared that no person charged with corruption can appear on their electoral lists. This will have a tremendous impact on 9,000 traditional PP supporters in Orihuela who voted for the PP in the national elections but not in the last local elections.

The predicted number of voters is under 33,000 with blank and spoilt votes about 300. The results will likely be as follows:
PP 10 to 13 seats
Psoe 7 to 8 seats
Ciudadanos 2 to 3 seats
Foro Demócrata 1 to 2 seats
Cambiamos or Ganemos 0 to 1 seat

Filed under: http://www.theleader.info/article/47311/

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