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An Interesting Week for UK Politics Ahead



The week starts without notable references in Spain and attention shifts to the eurozone, where the trade balance for August and the total reserve assets for September will be published, on a day in which the Eurogroup also meets, where Ministers will exchange views with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the global outlook and risks. Also, this Monday, investors in the US will be watching the Empire State index for October.

Regarding the Eurozone trade balance, it is expected in line with the evolution recorded in recent months, that the foreign sector of the monetary zone will continue to show a significant deterioration marked by the context of slowdown in global economic activity.

On Tuesday the 17th, investors will focus their attention on the publication of the ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the Eurozone. After a positive start to the year, the persistence of inflation rates, the volatility of the energy market and geopolitical risks, among other factors, will likely keep the indicator at historically low levels.

Subsequently, we will know the final CPI for September of the Eurozone (the preliminary reading was 4.3% year-on-year) and the current account balance, as well as the production price index (PPI) of Germany.

This week, in Spain, the Institute of National Statistics (INE) will publish birth and death statistics.

In the UK, Parliament returns on Monday after their party recess, with Michael Gove being the first to lead business as his levelling up department tries to explain how levelling up doesn’t really mean levelling up. It is expected that the Israel / Gaza situation will dominate the discussion throughout the week however, no doubt leading to schoolyard name calling again on Wednesday when Sunak and Starmer go head-to-head for PMQs, with Sunak no doubt bringing Starmer’s previous working relationship with Jeremy Corbyn into the showcase.

During the course of this week, the UK labour market and wage statistics will be published, along with Inflation data for September (pension and benefits uprating), so we can expect lots of pointing in a different direction to distract from the reality of both of the outcomes of these reports. There is also the register of political donations report due to be published, but nothing to see here, move along!

Two Tory MPs who may shelter from the limelight this week are Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher, Dorries having served what was possibly the longest resignation with immediate effect in history, and Pincher involved in a groping scandal, as by-elections take place this week, with both Labour and the Lib Dems hoping to make their own pre general election statements based on the predicted results.

In another engine-less ship story, the Bibby Stockholm will return to the headlines as the 39 people who were sent onboard the 1976-built accommodation vessel are set to return to Portland in Dorset on Thursday, after they were evacuated five days after their original placement due to a legionella outbreak.

The Court of Appeal will also be hearing evidence in the case of Cpt Tom Moore’s daughter over spa demolition, and, sticking with the criminal world, in the “which-criminal-case-is-Donald-Trump-facing-this-week” news, it’s the High Court hearing against an MI6 agent over a ‘dirty dossier’ case on Monday.

Other reports of note this week include Universal Credit statistics, the UK house price index, EU inflation, secondary school performance statistics, and crime figures for England and Wales.

Finally, we cannot let the week ahead pass without recognising that Friday marks a whole year since Liz Truss announced her resignation as PM. Other comic characters will be celebrated with the 100th anniversary of Disney on Monday, this week is UK coffee week, and on a serious note, Tuesday is International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, the same day those Universal Credit statistics are published in the UK, whereas seriousness, awareness, and fun all come together on Friday for Wear It Pink Day, where everyone is encouraged to wear pink and support breast cancer awareness.

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