The Week Ahead – Monday 19 February 2024

The beginning of the week will be defined by the absence of relevant macroeconomic references on the European continent. We will know the first significant data for investors on Tuesday the 20th, when the evolution of the Eurozone current account balance in December will be published. After a 2023 of high volatility, no major changes are expected compared to the level recorded the previous month in a context that has been marked by the slowdown in demand for goods from China.

In America, the week will begin with a festive day in which the US stock markets will remain closed for Presidents’ Day.

On Wednesday, the consumer confidence indicator in the Eurozone prepared by the European Commission will be published. After a start to the year marked by the slowdown of the disinflation process and the deterioration of economic activity, especially in Germany, household confidence could register a slight decline. Following this, the provisional Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February for the Eurozone will be published.

The week will end with the publication of the final reading of the German GDP for Q4 2023 and the IFO survey for February, which will show the evolution of business sentiment in the main European power. In line with consumer confidence, no major variations in the business climate are expected despite estimates that project economic activity to continue stagnating in the first months of this year.

At the business level, the publication of results from various companies will stand out, such as Barclays, Carrefour, HSBC, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Repsol Danone, Mercedes-Benz and Rolls Royce, among others, and globally, Home Depot, Walmart, NVIDIA, Moderna and Warner Bros Discovery will stand out.

In the UK, but of global significance, the final hearing of Julian Assange and his extradition threat is due to be heard at the High Court on Tuesday and Wednesday. The founder of WikiLeaks has been in prison since he was arrested almost 5 years ago outside the Ecuadorian Embassy, where he had been seeking refuge for seven years to avoid extradition to the US.

Junior doctors recommence strike action this week, expected to add more of a burden on an already near-dead through lack of investment NHS.

After British Gas were the latest energy firm to announce record profits last week, with some people seemingly baffled as to how they have managed it, Ofgem announces the next adjustment to the energy price cap this week. Some experts are predicting a cut in prices for consumers, but of course nowhere near in compensation for the massive rise in prices which has resulted in the pockets of these energy firms bulging with your hard-earned cash.

MP’s return to parliament after recess, where no doubt the mood will be mixed following the beating the Conservatives got in the by-elections last week, with both Labour and Reform no doubt revelling in their demise. The register of political donations is set to be published on Tuesday, which always makes interesting reading.

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is expected to try to counter signs of ‘solidarity fatigue’ as the second anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches this weekend, in particular in America, where public focus has diverted to the funding of arms to Israel.

And for reasons no doubt they believe important, the IM-1 mission’s Odysseus lander will make history as the first commercial space mission to land on the Moon, hopefully, expected to arrive at Moonbase Alpha (we made that part up in reference to the TV show Space 1999, partly because it’s now 2024 and we still don’t have Eagle Transporters!) on Thursday.

Finally, although there are other days of note this week, your attention must be drawn to two, because Saturday is International Sword Swallower’s Day, and frankly they don’t get anywhere near the recognition they deserve, but before then, on Friday, it is Work Your Proper Hours Day in the UK, so we can all celebrate that one and stop doing unpaid overtime, answering messages and emails outside of work, and have a weekend which to paraphrase another hit TV show of our youth (maybe), go out and do something less boring instead! Why Don’t You!