We have arrived at the last week of May, before we embark on June at the weekend, a month that sees schools in Spain close for the summer, and one of the biggest celebrations across the Valencia region, which also means another Monday off for many, San Juan.
We will talk more about that next week, for now we will return to The Week Ahead. It is largely a quiet week for business, as it’s the end of the month, with little in the way of results or references, but there’s still a bit to keep us occupied.
Did somebody mention an election? Okay, we know that the UK will be dominated by campaigning for a while now, we will try not to mention it too much here, other than perhaps mentioning the deadlines, and of course we have the European elections before that, for those eligible to vote. However, this week also sees another important election, which might go unnoticed, taking place in South Africa.
Monday 27 May 2024
In Spain, mortgage figures will dominate the financial headlines, specifically for March. Energy and consumption figures for 2022 will also have their final publication.
The week will begin in the Eurozone with the release of Germany’s May Ifo Business Confidence Survey. In 2024, business sentiment has been gaining traction as German economic activity has shown signs of improvement, so the Ifo index is expected to exceed the level of 90 points, something that has not happened since May 2023.
The ECB publishes its Research Bulletin, and the meeting of the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will take place, which will discuss the current crisis situation in the agricultural sector.
The UK and US stock markets will remain closed on Monday for a holiday.
Tuesday 28 May 2024
Cisterna in Leon celebrates their local holiday on Tuesday.
In Spain, commercial and service sector figures will be published finalising the 2022 year.
In the USA, after Memorial Day investors will start the week focusing their attention on consumer confidence data from the Conference Board for the month of May.
We will have results from Iberpapel Gestion.
Wednesday 29 May 2024
Benaventa in Zamora has a local holiday on Wednesday.
Investors in Europe will focus on Wednesday’s release of Spain’s April retail sales data, the preliminary CPI reading for May and Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence.
In the Spanish region of Castilla la Mancha, a special traffic operation commences running through the weekend in preparation for the Corpus Christi celebrations on Thursday, and the regional holiday on Friday.
In the US on Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige book will be published. Likewise, like every week, we will know the weekly mortgage applications.
Business results from HP and Salesforce will be published. Also, Meta (Facebook etc) holds their AGM.
The people of South Africa will cast their votes today in what is being described as its most important parliamentary and presidential elections since 1994. Aside from speculation about parties and candidates and their expected figures, South Africa has been instrumental in raising awareness of the plight of Palestinians and the reported genocide in Gaza.
Perhaps with a certain ironic view, it seems prudent to mention that Wednesday is also International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers.
Back in the UK, we will also have the quarterly stats on working and workless households, as well as the annual figures on trade union membership, which might throw a bit of light on the opinions of the working population from a few different angles.
Thursday 30 May 2024
There are lots of local holidays on Thursday in Spain, too many to mention, or 18 according to the Social Security calendar, but notable places include Toledo, and Albacete, as well as quite a few places around Seville.
It is the Day of the Canary Islands, and Corpus Christi is celebrated in areas such as Castile la Mancha.
In Spain, we will have advance data on the consumer price index for May, along with import and export data.
The NHS will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, which will no doubt add fuel to the fire of election promises, as monthly stats on GP appointments are released, along with the NHS workforce, sickness absence and vacancy stats.
Everyday funds will also be highlighted in part by the release of the quarterly ONS stats on household inflation, and energy trends and prices.
In America on Thursday, the second GDP reading will be published in Q1 2024. The first reading showed a slowdown in the dynamism of economic activity compared to Q4 2023, weighed down by the moderation of exports, the slowdown in public spending and the lower household consumption. At the same time, we will know the preliminary reading of wholesale inventories in April.
eDreams will publish their results, as will Aedas homes and Costco Wholesale.
Friday 31 May 2024
More local holidays are celebrated in various areas on Friday, although not as many as Thursday, but notably continuing in Toleda and Albacete.
It is the day of Castile la Mancha today, so a weekend of celebrations, which started yesterday, will continue, as will the special traffic operation monitoring the road network.
At the end of the week, we will know the unemployment rate in the Eurozone in April, as well as the consumer confidence indicator prepared by the European Commission. At the same time, various references from Italy will be published, among which the PPI or the unemployment rate stands out.
Likewise, investors will focus on the evolution of the Eurozone inflation rate in the month of May. After the year-on-year variation of the general CPI stands at 2.4% year-on-year, limited progress in the disinflationary process is expected.
In the United Kingdom, we will have the UK Health Accounts: 2022 and 2023, and the annual figures on childhood mortality in England and Wales released.
To end the week in the USA, the PCE price index, a reference for the Fed, will be published, as well as personal income and expenses for the month of April.
Friday is also World No Tobacco Day.
A Weekend in the Sky
For aircraft fans in the UK, a number of aeronautical events are taking place this weekend, but perhaps most notable is the Duxford Air Show, celebrating D-Day.
On the subject of flying, airport security liquid check changes come into effect on Saturday too.
Sticking with aircraft, though not in a good way, Sunday also marks the 30th anniversary of a Chinook helicopter crashing at the Mull of Kintyre. On 2 June 1994, a RAF Chinook, ZD576, crashed in foggy conditions, resulting in the deaths of all twenty-five passengers and four crew on board, the incident becoming the RAF’s fourth-worst peacetime disaster. Among the passengers were almost all the United Kingdom’s senior Northern Ireland intelligence experts.
To try and finish on a slightly cheerier note, still sticking with air travel in a way, Saturday is when the latest Boeing Starliner launch is planned, and on Sunday, China’s Chang’e 6 moon mission’s lunar landing is expected, and with that, as the voice of Shaggy in Scooby Doo, American DJ Casey Kasem, famously said, “Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars”.
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