It’s an important week for the tourism sector in Spain as hotel occupancy figures are published ahead of World Tourism Day, and a big week for Keir Starmer in the UK as he delivers his conference speech before jetting off to the United Nations where the UN General Assembly’s General Debate is set to take place.
This is The Week Ahead, back after the summer break, in Spain, the UK, and some parts of the world.
Monday 23 September 2024
Starting the week ahead in Spain, on Monday, The Bank of Spain publishes quarterly data on the balance of payments and the international investment position for the second quarter.
The Bank of Spain also publishes quarterly data on the balance of payments and the international investment position for the second quarter.
We will also find out the salary data for 2022 for disabled workers in Spain.
We have a few local holidays in Spain on Monday, most notably in Tarragona, and locally in Altea, which also runs into Tuesday.
We will also find out how well the tourism sector did in a record-breaking summer as hotel occupancy figures in Spain for August are published by the INE.
We will also have the final salary structure survey data for 2022, and the figures for loans and deposits by province and autonomous community for the second quarter of 2024 are released.
On the subjects of loans, Monday marks the 2nd anniversary of Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘mini-budget’.
Across Europe on Monday, the start of the week will be marked by the publication of the preliminary Eurozone composite PMI data.
Eurostat publishes imports of energy products in the Eurozone for the second quarter of the year.
Across the Atlantic in America, the world’s leading power will start the week with the publication of the preliminary composite PMI data for the month of September.
Tuesday 24 September 2024
More local holidays in Spain on Tuesday of note include areas of Cádiz, and some areas around Barcelona, including Barcelona itself.
We will also have the court conviction statistics for both adults and minors in Spain for the year 2023.
In Europe on Tuesday, we will see the German Ifo survey for September, which will be key to determining the outlook for activity in the main Eurozone economy in the coming months.
In the UK, the headlines will be dominated by Keir Starmer and his conference speech no doubt.
Statistics wise in the UK we will have results for planning applications in England, and cancer waiting times in Scotland, coupled with the NRS release on life expectancy in Scotland 2021-2023.
Hopefully the potential risk of a zombie attack in the UK will not take place, as the ban on so-called zombie knives comes into effect.
Global eyes might turn to the UN General Assembly’s General Debate, when world leaders deliver 15-minute speeches, although they frequently overrun, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres delivering the first address, and US President Joe Biden presenting his last before the November election.
Over in America, the final reading of the Conference Board ‘s consumer confidence index for the month of September and the Case-Shiller index will be released.
Wednesday 25 September 2024
In the middle of the week, Wednesday marks three months to the day when Santa arrives bringing gifts to the worthy.
In Europe, investors’ attention will focus on the producer price index for our country for August.
In the UK, the Police Memorial Trust unveils a memorial stone for Sgt. Matt Ratana, who was gunned down by a suspect in the custody suite following an arrest.
At the UN General Assembly’s General Debate, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the floor, likely to once again make the case that his country’s fight against Russia. A high-level general debate on Ukraine is taking place concurrently.
In America, as every week, we will learn about the weekly mortgage applications, as well as the sales of new homes.
Thursday 26 September 2024
In Spain, on Thursday, all eyes will be on the publication of retail sales for August. But that´s not all of note because we will also have more tourism figures, and property transfer details.
On Thursday in the Eurozone, the GFK consumer confidence for October will be released, with a deterioration in the consumer climate in September of -22.0 points (vs. -18.6 points in August).
It could be a bleak day of statistics in the UK on Thursday, as amongst the reports set to be published, we will find out hospital accident and emergency activity (2023/24), as well as the road traffic casualties for 2023, rail safety figures for 2022/23, and in the criminal world, annual stats on the nature of violent crime in England and Wales, and quarterly court statistics.
Back to the UN General Assembly’s General Debate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak, amid the mass killing spree dominating the entire area.
Thursday will be dominated by the publication of numerous macroeconomic data in America. Attention will focus on the final reading of US GDP in the 2Q of 2024 and the GDP deflator index. The evolution of the personal consumption index will also be relevant. Additionally, 3 more references will be published such as durable goods orders, weekly applications for unemployment benefits.
Also on Thursday, if you are in or near the Quesada area of Rojales, you are invited to pop into the Ibex insurance offices where they are holding an open day specifically to answer questions and doubts about health insurance and medical care in Spain. I will also be there for most of the day to answer questions you might have about driving in Spain, Spanish Traffic Law, or any of the other fields I work in. Full details are on the N332 website.
Friday 27 September 2024
Friday is World Tourism Day.
In Spain, we have a holiday in Cartagena, and Velez Malaga, amongst others.
The end of the week will be dominated by the publication of numerous macroeconomic references. We will know the preliminary reading of the CPI of Spain and France for September which, together with that of the rest of the main economies of the European monetary zone, will be key to determining the next decisions of the ECB, after its latest reduction in the cost of money in the Eurozone by 25 bp at its meeting this month and the 50 bp cut in the Fed’s official interest rates.
On a day in which the final reading of Spain’s GDP for the 2Q of 2024 will also stand out.
Additionally, the production price index for France and Italy will be made public. Finally, the trend in the unemployment rate in Germany during the month of September will be known, after remaining stable since June at 6.0% of the active population.
In the UK, Just Stop Oil protesters who threw soup at a Van Gogh painting will hear their fate, when they are sentenced amid cries of gross unfairness as convicted high-profile paedophiles are let off with a minor suspended sentence, whilst similar peaceful protestors are locked up for years.
Also in the UK, the reports on workless households by region (2023), and property transactions will be published.
On Friday at the UN General Assembly’s General Debate, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer makes his first big international address.
To end the week, American attention will focus on the final reading of the University of Michigan’s confidence index for September, key to determining the economic sentiment of American households, and their consumption prospects in the coming months to determine the degree of resilience of the American economy in the latter part of this year and their confidence in the evolution of the country’s political situation.
Meanwhile, the publication of the evolution of personal income and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices will take place.
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