Before we get to the business news of this week is important to note that Tuesday is a holiday in Spain, a national holiday or red day, as it’s San José, Father’s Day, a very special day celebrated in Spain, originally created by a nun to celebrate fathers, then exploited into a commercial event by El Corte Ingles, and this week also marks the first of a run of four weeks of holidays, a little bit longer in some places, Tuesday is holiday this week and next week we have Good Friday then Easter Monday the following week and then after that Monday again, San Vicente, which is a very important day for a number of locations including the likes of Torrevieja. Easter holidays do vary depending on where you are in Spain so check with your local social security office.
The week will begin with the publication on Monday the 18th of the final February reading of the CPI in the Eurozone. Within a context in which the number and date of rate cuts is unknown, inflation data will continue to be key, especially given the sticky nature of inflationary tensions in services, to determine the ECB’s next steps. In addition, we will know the evolution of the trade balance in the Eurozone in January, which the previous month presented a surplus of 16.8 billion euro.
On Tuesday, the results of the ZEW Survey in the Eurozone in March will be published, relevant to know the perspective of investors on the current economic situation in the face of the divergence of growth expectations between its Member States, highlighting the weakness of Germany compared to the upward revision of the expected GDP growth in 2024 for Spain. We will also know the labour cost indices for Q4 2023, with great relevance in determining the trend of the labour market and wage tensions.
On Wednesday, data on the PPI will be presented in both Germany and the United Kingdom, where the evolution of the CPI in February will also be known. All this in a context in which the European Commission will publish the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone for the month of March, which could maintain the trend of its last record.
On Thursday, we will know the evolution of the composite PMI in the Eurozone for March, and that of the main European powers. This represents a faithful x-ray of the situation of the services and manufacturing sector of the European monetary zone. At the same time, the BoE (Bank of England) rate meeting will take place, where no changes are expected in its current interest rates (5.25%).
To end the week, UK retail sales data for February and business confidence in Germany for March will be released on Friday.
On a business level, the publication of results from Enagás, Enel, Accenture and Alantra will stand out, together with the General Meeting of Shareholders of some of the main banking entities in our country: Santander, CaixaBank and Bankinter.
We have said it before, but in the UK, the Rwanda Bill will be in the news as the constantly defeated bill reaches the final stage of the legislative process in the House of Commons on Monday when MPs discuss changes made in the House of Lords.
Monthly GDP figures last week showed the UK economy is beginning to work its way out recession and this week the ONS publishes the latest data on inflation on Wednesday, which economists are hoping to be positive, albeit only slightly, especially as the OBR economists forecast a decline to 2% in the second quarter of this year.
Finally, as a day of note, on the day those inflation figures are published it’s International Day of Happiness, celebrated on Wednesday, so we can focus on that, whilst we also note that this week marks four years since the first UK COVID lockdown.
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