Global warming marks almond production risk

As the global destruction of the planet continues, locally, in Spain, 2024 has started once again with unseasonal temperatures, and even so early in the year, the next foodstuff to fall victim to the changing climate is almonds.

In 2023 insurance companies made the biggest payout in history to famers in compensation for damage caused by weather related situations in Spain, the result being that some of those farmers have had their policies cancelled and are unable to obtain insurance, leaving them and their business in a precarious if not terminal situation.

As 2024 is just weeks into the run of the year´s agenda, almond farmers are now facing an uncertain year, and whereas it has become increasingly likely that the trees in the south of the Iberian peninsular bloom late January and into February, there is now the added problem that trees in the centre and north of the peninsula have become disorientated by the unseasonal conditions and have started to blossom already, which is pretty much unheard of.

Whereas blossoming almond trees are a thing of beauty in themselves, the problems occur when the cycle turns to harvesting. Many farmers are now concerned that as we have yet to get through any of the typical bad weather of spring, crops may be lost.

Whereas that might be the worst-case scenario, the best case is early harvesting, that could lead to a reduction in the crop, and a subsequent loss of earnings, and even the harvest that does survive can result in poorer quality product, which again, can result in financial losses.

Collectively, a reduction in the amount of product available and at a different time of year than normal can have a detrimental impact on the entire supply chain.

According to data collated by Statista, the volume of almonds produced by Spain reached its highest point in 2021 at 371 thousand tons. Andalusia was the Spanish autonomous community that most produced almonds according to the latest records, with a production volume that amounted to over 112 thousand metric tons in 2019.

Exports from Spain showed a 3% growth at the end of 2023, although collectively exports were down on an average year, but that was set to change before this latest news, as after being in negotiations since 2016, in 2023 an agreement was finally reached to export Spanish almonds to China. The deal mean that it was estimated that around 50,000 tonnes will be destined for China by 2025, and another 90,000 tonnes by 2032, according to estimates communicated by the sector itself.

Thanks to this agreement, China joins the more than 50 countries to which persimmon is exported outside the EU.

The export opportunity was set to benefit the producing areas in Spain, which are mainly located in the Valencian Community and Andalusia, with more than 85% and 10% of the production area, respectively, not ignoring the fact that shipping the product to the other side of the planet contributes to the pollution which is a factor in the cause of the environmental problems resulting in this risk to the overall crop production.

Hay fever sufferers might want to stock up on antihistamines early too.

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